This Recession Indicator Hasn’t Been Wrong in 56 Years: Here’s What It Says Happens Next

For most investors, last year served as a reminder that the stock market doesn’t move up in a straight line — even if 2021 made us believe it did. The start of a new year brings with it new opportunity for the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI 1.00%), broad-based S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.89%), and tech-dependent Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 2.66%), to break out of their respective bear markets.

However, the optimism we’ve witnessed in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite through the first two weeks of the trading year may need to be put on hold based on newly released data from Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Image source: Getty Images.

This recession-forecasting tool hasn’t been wrong in over a half-century

If there’s an elephant in the room for Wall Street, it’s the dread ‘r’ word: recession.

While there are a number of macroeconomic indicators that can be used to assess the likelihood of a gross domestic product retracement in…

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