Hi Quartz members,
One swift way to sober up in the first days of the new year was to look at the headlines in the financial press, most of which asked versions of the same question: Will 2023 be the year of a recession?
Consensus is, to say the least, elusive.
A Wall Street Journal survey of economists at 23 large financial institutions showed that two-thirds of them predict a recession this year. “A recession is foretold,” BlackRock Investment Institute said, in a rather Shakespearean vein. But some major banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, said the US would sidestep a recession not only this year but next. Most banks believe any forthcoming recession will be mild, but Ned Davis Research put the chances of a severe global downturn at 65%. No one ventured thoughts about the physiognomy of any potential recession: double-dip or single, V-shaped or U-shaped.
The release on Wednesday (Jan. 4) of the minutes of the…
